Geology topics

Alison A. Coulter

Publications and source records attributed to Alison A. Coulter.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Combining branching processes and Allee effects into an integral projection model to assess invasion risk

Invasive species threaten both ecological systems and economies. Successful establishment is governed partly by demographic stochasticity, where random individual-level variation can significantly influence invasion dynamics. A critical factor is the Allee effect, which describes reduced population growth at low densities, potentially serving as a barrier to persistence. Size-dependent growth and survival further shape outcomes based on the size distribution of individuals within the population. To address these complexities, we developed a population-level model integrating an Integral Projection Model (IPM) for the expected size distribution with an Allee effect for recruitment dynamics and a branching process to account for demographic stochasticity. We applied this framework to Silver Carp ( Hypophthalmichthys molitrix ), a species established in the Upper Mississippi River system that poses significant risk of expanding into the Great Lakes. Our analysis compared temporal dynamics and population-size distributions under hypothetical introduction scenarios for large adult and smaller subadult fish. In both cases, initial population size relative to the Allee threshold was a critical determinant of establishment probability, with introductions below the threshold requiring stochastic growth across a critical biomass boundary before self-sustaining dynamics could take hold. Sensitivity analysis further indicated that per-spawner recruitment played a compounding role in invasion risk: higher recruitment rates reduced the critical introduction size for establishment and compressed the time to self-sustaining population size, jointly broadening the window of invasion risk. These findings highlight the framework’s potential for invasion assessments and offer insights into how Allee effects, size structure, and recruitment rates interact to govern establishment outcomes, while underscoring the need for species-specific parameter estimates before quantitative outputs can guide management decisions.

PLOS Ecosystems↗

USGS2026

Mechanisms of Devils Lake’s responses to recent climatic wetting: Insights from a physically based hydrologic model

Study region Devils Lake Basin of the Northern Great Plains (NGP) region, North Dakota, USA Study focus Understanding the mechanism of Devils Lake’s responses and basin-wide hydrologic change under a wet-climatic regime using a process-based and cold region hydrologic model. New hydrologic insights Model results illustrate that three distinct hydroclimatic periods occurred during the study: Water Years 2002–05, 2006–11, and 2012–18. Following a brief time of contraction and growth, the latter two periods provide a complete picture of a wetting to drying cycle during an overall wetting regime. From 2006–2011, Devils Lake (DL) grew primarily due to lateral inflow, driven by strong precipitation and high frozen soil content leading up to the 2011 floods. In addition, during wet years, the snowmelt streamflow from the eastern and central parts of the DL Basin contributes significantly to lake growth compared to the western part. By contrast, from 2012 to 18, DL entered a contraction period, dominated by evaporation losses and anthropogenic flood control operations. Contributors to upstream drying included low precipitation, minimal snowpack accumulation, slightly lower frozen soil ratios, and minimal snowmelt runoff.

North Dakota↗

USGS2025

Predicting aquatic habitat connectivity across watershed boundaries: Implications for interbasin spread of nonindigenous aquatic species.

Understanding habitat connectivity is critical for managing nonindigenous aquatic species (NAS) spread. Dams and watershed boundaries can be impassable to NAS during typical conditions but may become temporarily passable during flooding. The goal of our project was to develop an approach for identifying locations of aquatic connectivity at a fine spatial scale along watershed boundaries using readily available data. To develop this approach, we focused on the potential for range expansion of invasive fish in the United States via possible cross-boundary habitat connections. First, we developed an index using metrics of elevation, watershed size, and geology at regular points along a watershed boundary to stratify points by likelihood of connectivity during high precipitation (>20 mm of precipitation in a 3-day period). We then used a subset of points across a gradient of connectivity likelihoods to gather Landsat-derived observed surface water data and developed a statistical model to predict surface water presence from landscape characteristics. We applied the model throughout the entire watershed boundary to identify locations of hydrologic connectivity during high-water events. The presence of surface water on watershed boundaries was predicted by the interactions between watershed boundary point elevation relative to the minimum adjacent HUC-12 elevations and watershed boundary point elevation relative to neighboring point elevations (marginal R 2 = 0.94). Our approach can be used to identify potential areas of surface water connectivity between watersheds quickly and easily at a fine spatial scale using readily available, remotely sensed data that can inform conservation and management actions across disciplines.

North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2024

Bayesian multistate models for measuring invasive carp movement and evaluating telemetry array performance

Understanding the movement patterns of an invasive species can be a powerful tool in designing effective management and control strategies. Here, we used a Bayesian multistate model to investigate the movement of two invasive carp species, silver carp ( Hypophthalmichthys molitrix ) and bighead carp ( H. nobilis ), using acoustic telemetry. The invaded portions of the Illinois and Des Plaines Rivers, USA, are a high priority management zone in the broader efforts to combat the spread of invasive carps from reaching the Laurentian Great Lakes. Our main objective was to characterize the rates of upstream and downstream movements by carps between river pools that are maintained by navigation lock and dam structures. However, we also aimed to evaluate the efficacy of the available telemetry infrastructure to monitor carp movements through this system. We found that, on a monthly basis, most individuals of both species remained within their current river pools: averaging 76.2% of silver carp and 75.5% of bighead carp. Conversely, a smaller proportion of silver carp, averaging 14.2%, and bighead carp, averaging 13.9%, moved to downstream river pools. Movements towards upstream pools were the least likely for both species, with silver carp at an average of 6.7% and bighead carp at 7.9%. The highest probabilities for upstream movements were for fish originating from the three most downstream river pools, where most of the population recruitment occurs. However, our evaluation of the telemetry array’s effectiveness indicated low probability to detect fish in this portion of the river. We provide insights to enhance the placement and use of these monitoring tools, aiming to deepen our comprehension of these species’ movement patterns in the system.

Illinois↗

USGS2024

Importance of a lake-wetland complex for a resilient Walleye fishery

Wetlands serve as unique habitats that can support high biodiversity. Large-scale loss of wetland habitats can threaten important linkages between lake and wetland habitats that could affect diversity and growth of aquatic organisms. In this study, we compare prey diversity and abundance as well as Walleye ( Sander vitreus ) diets and condition in a large glacial lake (Lake Kampeska, South Dakota) with a connected wetland to better understand seasonal changes in the benefits provided by each habitat. We examined seasonal differences (spring, summer, and fall) through two years (summer 2021 through fall 2022) between the habitats using prey fish catch per unit effort, richness, Shannon diversity, and Bray–Curtis dissimilarity as well as Walleye relative weight, percent of empty stomachs, diet weight, stomach fullness, diet energy, and diet taxa importance. The prey fish community was more diverse and abundant in the wetland, and Walleye consumed more prey (by weight) in the wetland during all seasons except spring. Wetland reconnection can be a tool for managers to improve water quality while providing seasonal habitat needs for fish. Additionally, the diversity of prey resources provided by wetlands, many of which are unique, support resilience in the face of ecological change. Protection of wetlands may be critical for maintaining healthy and resilient fisheries into the future.

South Dakota↗

USGS2024

Multi-scale effects of behavioral movement deterrents on invasive carp metapopulations

Behavioral deterrents of among-pool movement represent a promising tool for controlling invasive fish populations. To date, much of the research in this area has been focused on the direct effectiveness of different methods of deterrence. However, the effect of these structures on populations in spatially complex habitats is unknown. We combine a metacommunity model with movement data of two invasive species (bighead carp and silver carp) in a large river to assess local and river-wide scale population outcomes of deterrent locations. We calculated (1) which potential deterrent locations are most effective at reducing the growth at the invasion front (2) the river-scale population effects at each location, and (3) what, if any, are the risks imposed by altering the current spatial dynamics. We found that the effects on the population dynamics at the invasion front varied with the location of deterrents, ranging from near zero to effects equal to the reduction in an individual’s movement across the deterrent. The river-scale population growth rate was slightly increased by all potential deterrent placements because the deterrents tended to concentrate more of the river-scale population into pools with the highest recruitment rates. The short-term, transient dynamics followed a strictly decreasing pattern after deterrent placement suggesting no additional short-term risk. These results suggest that deterrents can be an effective and low-risk intervention for the control of invasive carp, although the population level effect will depend on the interaction of the traits and behavior of the species with the physical character and spatial structure of the habitat.

Illinois↗

USGS2024

Comparing maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods for fitting hidden Markov models to multi-state capture-recapture data of invasive carp in the Illinois River

Background Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are often used to model multi-state capture-recapture data in ecology. However, a variety of HMM modeling approaches and software exist, including both maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. The diversity of these methods obscures the underlying HMM and can exaggerate minor differences in parameterization. Methods In this paper, we describe a general framework for modelling multi-state capture-recapture data via HMMs using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. We then apply an HMM to invasive silver carp telemetry data from the Illinois River and compare the results estimated by both methods. Results Our analysis demonstrates disadvantages of relying on a single approach and highlights insights obtained from implementing both methods together. While both methods often struggled to converge, our results show biologically informative priors for Bayesian methods and initial values for maximum likelihood methods can guide convergence toward realistic solutions. Incorporating prior knowledge of the system can successfully constrain estimation to biologically realistic movement and detection probabilities when dealing with sparse data. Conclusions Biologically unrealistic estimates may be a sign of poor model convergence. In contrast, consistent convergence behavior across approaches can increase the credibility of a model. Estimates of movement probabilities can strongly influence the predicted population dynamics of a system. Therefore, thoroughly assessing results from HMMs is important when evaluating potential management strategies, particularly for invasive species.

Illinois↗

USGS2024

Water-level changes impact angler effort in a large lake: Implications for climate change

Climate change is expected to influence aquatic habitats and associated fish populations, yet we know little about the impact on recreational anglers. Our goal was to explore whether interannual fluctuations in waterbody surface area and other explanatory variables could be used as indicators of changes in angler fishing effort. Our approach leveraged a combination of remotely sensed waterbody surface area, environmental and fish population data, and onsite angler survey monitoring data for Devils Lake, North Dakota, USA during the open-water fishing period (May 1st to August 31st) for 9 years (1992–2021). The information was used to develop a dynamic waterbody size-angler effort model. Changes in waterbody surface area reliably predicted changes in angler effort (r 2 = 0.60). Increases in waterbody surface area led to increases in angler effort, and decreases in waterbody surface area led to decreases in angler effort. Our findings show promise that remotely sensed fluctuations in waterbody surface area could be used as an indicator of interannual angler effort dynamics. Dynamic waterbody size-angler effort models could provide managers the ability to predict changes in angler effort via climate-related hydrological cycles that affect the size and distribution of waterbodies on the landscape.

North Dakota↗

USGS2023

Incorporating metapopulation dynamics to inform invasive species management: Evaluating bighead and silver carp control strategies in the Illinois River

1. Invasive species management can benefit from predictive models that incorporate spatially explicit demographics and dispersal to guide resource allocation decisions. 2. We used invasive bigheaded carps ( Hypophthalmichthys spp.) in the Illinois River, USA as a case study to create a spatially explicit model to evaluate the allocation of future management efforts. Specifically, we compared additional harvest (e.g. near the invasion front vs. source populations) and enhanced movement deterrents to meet the management goal of reducing abundance at the invasion front. 3. We found additional harvest in lower river pools (i.e. targeting source populations) more effectively limited population sizes upriver at the invasion front compared to allocating the same harvest levels near the invasion front. Likewise, decreasing passage (i.e. lock and dam structures) at the farthest, feasible downriver location limited invasion front population size more than placing movement deterrents farther upriver. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our work highlights the benefits of adopting a multipronged approach for invasive species management, combining suppression of source populations with disrupting movement between source and sink populations thereby producing compounding benefits for control. Our results also demonstrate the importance of considering metapopulation dynamics for invasive species control programs when achieving long-term management goals.

Illinois↗

USGS2023

MetaIPM: Placing integral projection models into a metapopulation framework

Metapopulation models include spatial population dynamics such as dispersion and migration between subpopulations. Integral projection models (IPMs) can include demographic rates as a function of size. Traditionally, metapopulation models do not included detailed populaiton models such as IPMs. In some situations, both local population dynamics (e.g. size-based survival) and spatial dynamics are important. We present a Python package, MetaIPM , which places IPMs into a metapopulation framework, and allow users to readily construct and apply these models that combine local population dynamics within a metapopulation framework. MetaIPM includes an IPM for each subpopulation that is connected to other subpopulations via a metapopulation movement model. These movements can include dispersion, migration or other patterns. The IPM can include for size-specific demographic rates (e.g. survival, recruitment) as well as management actions, such as length-based harvest (e.g. gear specific capture sizes, varying slot limits across political boundaries). The model also allows for changes in metapopulation connectivity between locations, such as a fish passage ladders to enhance movement or deterrents to reduce movement. Thus, resource managers can use MetaIPM to compare different management actions such as the harvest gear type (which can be length-specific) and harvest locations. We demonstrate how MetaIPM may be applied to inform managers seeking to limit the spread of an invasive species in a system with important metapopulation dynamics. Specifically, we compared removal lengths (all length fish versus longer fish only) for an invasive fish population in a fragmented, inland river system. MetaIPM allowed users to compare the importance of harvesting source populations away from the invasion front, as well as species at the invasion front. The model would also allow for future comparisons of different deterrent placement locations in the system. Moving beyond our example system, we describe how MetaIPM can be applied to other species, systems and management approaches. The MetaIPM packages includes Jupyter Notebooks documenting the package as well as a second set of JupyterNotebooks showing the application of the package to our example system.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2022

Analysis of per capita contributions from a spatial model provides strategies for controlling spread of invasive carp

Metapopulation models may be applied to inform natural resource management to guide actions targeted at location-specific subpopulations. Model insights frequently help to understand which subpopulations to target and highlight the importance of connections among subpopulations. For example, managers often treat aquatic invasive species populations as discrete populations due to hydrological (e.g., lakes, pools formed by dams) or jurisdictional boundaries (e.g., river segments by country or jurisdictional units such as states or provinces). However, aquatic invasive species often have high rates of dispersion and migration among heterogenous locations, which complicates traditional metapopulation models and may not conform to management boundaries. Controlling invasive species requires consideration of spatial dynamics because local management activities (e.g., harvest, movement deterrents) may have important impacts on connected subpopulations. We expand upon previous work to create a spatial linear matrix model for an aquatic invasive species, Bighead Carp, in the Illinois River, USA, to examine the per capita contributions of specific subpopulations and impacts of different management scenarios on these subpopulations. Managers currently seek to prevent Bighead Carp from invading the Great Lakes via a connection between the Illinois Waterway and Lake Michigan by allocating management actions across a series of river pools. We applied the model to highlight how spatial variation in movement rates and recruitment can affect decisions about where management activities might occur. We found that where the model suggested management actions should occur depend crucially on the specific management goal (i.e., limiting the growth rate of the metapopulation vs. limiting the growth rate of the invasion front) and the per capita recruitment rate in downstream pools. Our findings illustrate the importance of linking metapopulation dynamics to management goals for invasive species control.

Illinois↗

USGS2021

Demographic rate variability of Bighead and Silver Carps along an invasion gradient

Invasive Bighead Carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis and Silver Carp H. molitrix have infested and caused largescale ecological and economic damage to the Illinois, Mississippi, and Ohio rivers. We compiled demographic data from 42,995 fish from 23 pools in the Illinois, Mississippi, and Ohio rivers, which universities and management agencies previously collected as part of management, monitoring, and research activities. We used this data set to test whether demographic rates (length–weight relations including body condition, mortality, growth curves, and female maturity curves) varied among subpopulations across a gradient of invasion status. We found that length–weight relations and growth curves varied among subpopulations, whereas maturity curves did not. Our findings demonstrated spatial variability in demographic rates for Bighead and Silver carp across a broad geographic area in relation to invasion status and river conditions. Herein, we provide general subpopulation management options and present different hypotheses to explain the observed spatial variability in demographic rates.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, West Virginia↗

USGS2019

Early generation hybrids may drive range expansion of two invasive fishes

1. Introgressive hybridization between two invasive species has the potential to contribute to their invasion success and provide genetic resiliency to rapidly adapt to new environments. Additionally, differences in the behaviour of hybrids may lead to deleterious ecosystem effects that compound any negative impacts of the invading parental species. 2. Invasive silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) and bighead carp (H. nobilis) provide an opportunity to evaluate how hybridization may influence the behaviour, dispersal, and spread of an invasive species introgressive complex. In order to investigate the role hybrids may have in the invasion ecology of bigheaded carps, we examined the distribution, movements, and environmental cues for movement of two invasive fishes and their hybrids in the Illinois River (USA). 3. Early generation hybrids (e.g., F1,F2, and first generation backcross individuals) composed a greater proportion of the population at the invasion front where abundances of bigheaded carp were low. A greater proportion of early hybrids passed through dams upstream towards the invasion front than did other hybrids and parental species. 4. The movements and environmental cues for movement of late-generation backcrosses (more genetically similar to parental genotype) were not different from the parental species with which they shared the most alleles. Although the direction of the relationship between movement and environment was sometimes different for the parental species and associated advanced generation hybrids, these results indicate that management for parental species will also affect most hybrids. 5. Although early generation hybrids are rare, our results indicate they may disperse towards low-density population zones (i.e., invasion fronts) or are produced at greater frequency in low density areas. These rare hybrids have the potential to produce a variety of unique genetic combinations that could result in more rapid adaptation of a non-native population to their invaded range potentially facilitating the establishment of invasive species.

Illinois↗

USGS2019

Invasive silver carp may compete with unionid mussels for algae: First experimental evidence

1. Unionid mussels are imperiled throughout the United States, where their global diversity is highest. Silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix Valenciennes in Cuvier & Valenciennes, 1844), an invasive planktivorous fish, has spread throughout Midwestern rivers and currently threatens the Great Lakes. Because silver carp remove plankton and other particles from the water column, they may compete with mussels for food resources. This would be among the first examples of a direct competitive interaction between fish and mussels. 2. To examine the potential for competition, a 30-d tank experiment was performed with 2-yr old fatmucket mussels (Lampsilis siliquoidea Barnes, 1823) and age-1 silver carp in three treatments: fatmucket only, silver carp only, and fatmucket + silver carp. All tanks were given a commercial algal-based diet daily and dry mass of suspended particles (an estimate of available food) and NH4, NO3, and NO2 concentrations were quantified every 5 d to track food availability and changes in nutrients. Initial and final silver carp total length (mm) and mass (g), and fatmucket length (mm), height (mm), and surface area (mm2) were measured. 3. Survival was 100% over the test duration for both species. Fatmucket grew less in the fatmucket + silver carp treatment, while silver carp growth was low regardless of treatment. Fatmucket also exhibited increased movement in the presence of silver carp. Suspended particles did not differ among treatments. Dissolved nitrogen concentrations were higher in the silver carp treatments, suggesting that silver carp increase nutrient availability in aquatic systems. 4. Overall, the slower growth rates observed in the fatmucket + silver carp treatment compared to the mussel only treatment suggest exploitative competition between invasive planktivorous silver carp and fatmucket and this competition could contribute to additional stress on already imperiled mussels.

Midwest↗

USGS2018

Multistate models of bigheaded carps in the Illinois River reveal spatial dynamics of invasive species

Knowledge of the spatial distributions and dispersal characteristics of invasive species is necessary for managing the spread of highly mobile species, such as invasive bigheaded carps (Bighead Carp [ Hypophthalmichthys nobilis ] and Silver Carp [ H. molitrix ]). Management of invasive bigheaded carps in the Illinois River has focused on using human-made barriers and harvest to limit dispersal towards the Laurentian Great Lakes. Acoustic telemetry data were used to parameterize multistate models to examine the spatial dynamics of bigheaded carps in the Illinois River to (1) evaluate the effects of existing dams on movement, (2) identify how individuals distribute among pools, and (3) gauge the effects of reductions in movement towards the invasion front. Multistate models estimated that movement was generally less likely among upper river pools (Starved Rock, Marseilles, and Dresden Island) than the lower river (La Grange and Peoria) which matched the pattern of gated versus wicket style dams. Simulations using estimated movement probabilities indicated that Bighead Carp accumulate in La Grange Pool while Silver Carp accumulate in Alton Pool. Fewer Bighead Carp reached the upper river compared to Silver Carp during simulations. Reducing upstream movement probabilities (e.g., reduced propagule pressure) by ≥ 75% into any of the upper river pools could reduce upper river abundance with similar results regardless of location. Given bigheaded carp reproduction in the upper Illinois River is presently limited, reduced movement towards the invasion front coupled with removal of individuals reaching these areas could limit potential future dispersal towards the Great Lakes.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗

USGS2017

Evaluating upstream passage and timing of approach by adult bigheaded carps at a gated dam on the Illinois River

Dams are a conservation threat because they function as barriers to native fish movement; however, they may prevent the spread of invasive species. Invasive bigheaded carps ( Hypophthalmichthys spp.) threaten the Great Lakes ecosystem and are advancing towards Lake Michigan via the Illinois River. Navigation dams on the Illinois River may deter bigheaded carps' upstream movement. We investigated the permeability of the Starved Rock Lock and Dam (SRLD), the most downstream gated Illinois River dam, to bigheaded carps' migration by examining the timing of individuals approaching and passing through SRLD in relation to gate openness, tailwater elevation, and water temperature. Using acoustic telemetry of ( N = ~104 per year) tagged fish, 13 upstream passages of bigheaded carps occurred through SRLD between 2013 and 2016. Eleven passages occurred through the dam gates and 2 through the lock chamber, indicating deterrents (e.g., CO 2 ) placed in SRLD lock chamber may only limit passage of a small proportion of all fish passing through the lock-and-dam structure. Passages were documented only in 2013 and 2015. Most of the dam gate passages occurred during high water when gates were completely out of the water. Timing of bigheaded carps approaching SRLD was positively correlated with rising water temperature and high tailwater elevation, and all fish approached during late March through mid-September. Movement through dams is rare; modifying gate operations to reduce gate openness during late spring and summer could further reduce the permeability of gated dams such as SRLD to bigheaded carps, slowing their upstream advance.

Illinois↗

USGS2017

Range estimates and habitat use of invasive Silver Carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix): Evidence of sedentary and mobile individuals

Unregulated rivers provide unobstructed corridors for the dispersal of both native and invasive species. We sought to evaluate range size and habitat use of an invasive species (Silver Carp, Hypophthalmichthys molitrix ) in an unimpounded river reach (Wabash River, IN), to provide insights into the dispersal of invasive species and their potential overlap with native species. We hypothesized that range size would increase with fish length, be similar among sexes, and vary annually while habitats used would be deeper, warmer, lower velocity, and of finer substrate. Silver Carp habitat use supported our hypotheses but range size did not vary with sex or length. 75% home range varied annually, suggesting that core areas occupied by individuals may change relative to climate-based factors (e.g., water levels), whereas broader estimates of range size remained constant across years. Ranges were often centered on landscape features such as tributaries and backwaters. Results of this study indicate habitat and landscape features as potential areas where Silver Carp impacts on native ecosystems may be the greatest. Observed distribution of range sizes indicates the presence of sedentary and mobile individuals within the population. Mobile individuals may be of particular importance as they drive the spread of the invasive species into new habitats.

Hydrobiologia↗

USGS2017

Restoration versus invasive species: Bigheaded carps’ use of a rehabilitated backwater

Knowledge of how invasive species use invaded habitats can aid in developing management practices to exclude them. Swan Lake, a 1100-ha Illinois River (USA) backwater, was rehabilitated to restore ecosystem functions, but may provide valuable habitat for invasive bigheaded carps [bighead carp ( Hypophthalmichthys nobilis ) and silver carp ( H . molitrix )]. Use (residency and passages) of Swan Lake by invasive bigheaded carps was monitored using acoustic telemetry ( n = 50 individuals/species) to evaluate the use of a large, restored habitat from 2004 to 2005. Passages (entrances/exits) by bigheaded carps were highest in winter, and residency was highest in the summer. Bighead carp backwater use was associated with the differences in temperature between the main channel and backwater, and passages primarily occurred between 18:00 h and midnight. Silver carp backwater use was positively correlated with water level and main channel discharge, and fewer passages occurred between 12:00 h and 18:00 h than during any other time of day. Harvest occurring during summer or high main channel discharge could reduce backwater abundances while maintenance of low water levels could reduce overall backwater use. Conclusions from this study regarding the timing of bigheaded carps' use of backwater habitats are critical to integrated pest management plans to control invasive species.

River Research and Applications↗