Geology topics

Alan G. Leach

Publications and source records attributed to Alan G. Leach.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Shortening migration by 4500 km does not affect nesting phenology or increase nest success for black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) breeding in Arctic and subarctic Alaska

Background Since the 1980s, Pacific Black Brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans , hereafter brant) have shifted their winter distribution northward from Mexico to Alaska (approximately 4500 km) with changes in climate. Alongside this shift, the primary breeding population of brant has declined. To understand the population-level implications of the changing migration strategy of brant, it is important to connect movement and demographic data. Our objectives were to calculate migratory connectivity, a measure of spatial and temporal overlap during the non-breeding period, for Arctic and subarctic breeding populations of brant, and to determine if variation in migration strategies affected nesting phenology and nest survival. Methods We derived a migratory network using light-level geolocator migration tracks from an Arctic site (Colville River Delta) and a subarctic site (Tutakoke River) in Alaska. Using this network, we quantified the migratory connectivity of the two populations during the winter. We also compared nest success rates among brant that used different combinations of winter sites and breeding sites. Results The two breeding populations were well mixed during the winter, as indicated by a migratory connectivity score close to 0 (− 0.06) at the primary wintering sites of Izembek Lagoon, Alaska (n = 11 brant) and Baja California, Mexico (n = 48). However, Arctic birds were more likely to migrate the shorter distance to Izembek (transition probability = 0.24) compared to subarctic birds (transition probability = 0.09). Nest survival for both breeding populations was relatively high (0.88–0.92), and we did not detect an effect of wintering site on nest success the following year. Conclusions Nest survival of brant did not differ among brant that used wintering sites despite a 4500 km difference in migration distances. Our results also suggested that the growing Arctic breeding population is unlikely to compensate for declines in the larger breeding population of brant in the subarctic. However, this study took place in 2011–2014 and wintering at Izembek Lagoon may have greater implications for reproductive success under future climate conditions.

Movement Ecology↗

USGS2020

Mate fidelity improves survival and breeding propensity of a long‐lived bird

Evolutionary and behavioural ecologists have long been interested in factors shaping the variation in mating behaviour observed in nature. Although much of the research on this topic has focused on the consequences of mate choice and mate change on annual reproductive success, studies of a potential positive link between mate fidelity and adult demographic rates have been comparatively rare. This is particularly true for long‐lived birds with multi‐year, socially monogamous pair bonds. We used a 26‐year capture–mark–recapture dataset of 3,330 black brent Branta bernicla nigricans to test whether breeding with a familiar mate improved future breeding propensity and survival. We predicted that experienced breeders nesting with a new partner would have rates of survival similar to familiar pairs because long‐lived species avoid jeopardizing survival since their lifetime fitness is sensitive to this vital rate. In contrast, we expected that any costs of breeding with a new partner would be paid through skipping the subsequent breeding attempt. We found that unfamiliar pairs had lower subsequent breeding propensity than faithful partners. However, contrary to our expectations, individuals breeding with a new mate also suffered reduced survival. These results add to a small number of studies indicating that a positive relationship between mate retention and adult demographic rates may exist in a diverse array of avian species. Given these results, researchers should consider costs of mate change that extend beyond within‐season reproductive success to fully understand the potential adaptive basis for perennial social monogamy. We caution that if mate retention enhances survival prospects, improvements in annual reproductive success with pair‐bond length could be a secondary factor favouring perennial social monogamy, particularly in species with slower life‐history strategies. Furthermore, some cases where annual reproductive success does not improve with pair‐bond duration, yet multi‐year pair bonds are common, could be explained by benefits afforded by mate fidelity to adult vital rates.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2018

The black brant population is declining based on mark recapture

Annual survival and recruitment in black brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) have declined since the 1990s, yet aerial surveys of the global population have been stable or even increasing over the past decade. We used a combination of a Lincoln estimator based on harvest information and band recoveries, and marked‐unmarked ratios in bag checks in 1 harvest area in Mexico to estimate the number of adults in the population during 1992–2015. We produced weighted means from the 2 kinds of estimates for years in which we had data for both, with weights equal to the inverse of the variance of the individual estimates. We treated the black brant population as consisting of 2 subpopulations. One population consisted of breeding black brant on the Yukon‐Kuskokwim Delta (YKD), Alaska, USA, and the other consisted of Arctic (northern Alaska, western Canada, and eastern Russia) breeders, and nonbreeders and failed breeders from the YKD that underwent molt migration to the Arctic. For the global population estimates, we assessed potential bias due to differential marking and harvest of the 2 subpopulations, which was approximately 1%, probably because band recovery rates were similar for the 2 subpopulations. Population estimates declined from 229,980 (average for 1999–2002) to 161,504 (average for 2012–2015). Population estimates based on estimated harvest were variable but more stable in the later years of the study, when larger numbers of brant hunters were included in the sample. We suggest that the combination of Lincoln estimates and bag check data provides a reasonable and cost effective approach to monitoring the population.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2018

Spatial distribution of band recoveries of black brant

On average, band recovery rates of adult black brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) more than doubled between the 2000s and 2010s. However, the spatial distribution of band recoveries of black brant has not been reported. Our objective was to describe the spatial distribution of band recoveries of black brant since 1990. We found that Alaska, California, and Mexico accounted for ≥89% of band recoveries for black brant released from the Arctic and the Tutakoke River Colony in southwestern Alaska, in each decade studied. Although recovery rates increased in each major harvest region from the 1990s to 2010s, increases were not even. For brant released from the Arctic, the recovery rate in Alaska has gone up 7‐fold, whereas the recovery rate in Mexico has increased 1.3‐fold since the 1990s. For brant banded in the Arctic, the increased recovery rates in Alaska resulted largely from a rise in recoveries from the Izembek Lagoon area. For brant banded at the Tutakoke River Colony, the recovery rate in Alaska increased 4.8‐fold, whereas recovery rates in Mexico increased 1.6‐fold. Despite the reduced relative contribution of Mexico to band recoveries in the 2010s, Bahia San Quintin, Mexico, still contributes more recoveries than any other wintering estuary. Because 57–60% of black brant band recoveries occur at the localities of Izembek Lagoon, Alaska; Humboldt Bay, California; and Bahia San Quintin, it is likely that accurate annual estimates of the black brant population using Lincoln's method could be derived from hunter bag checks at these 3 areas. If population managers are interested in managing harvest rates of black brant, they could focus efforts on the main hunting areas we highlight in this paper. Finally, it is unclear if the recent increases in band recovery rates are the result of increased harvest, a declining population, or both; therefore, we suggest refinement of population monitoring programs and continued monitoring of band recovery rates.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2017

Declining survival of black brant from subarctic and arctic breeding areas

Since the mid 1990s, the number of black brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ; brant) nests on the Yukon‐Kuskokwim Delta (YKD), Alaska, USA, the historically predominant breeding area of brant, has declined steadily. This has caused researchers and managers to question if arctic breeding populations can compensate for the reduction in brant nests on the YKD. An important component of the assessment of brant population dynamics is having current estimates of first‐year and adult survival. We banded brant at 4 locations in Arctic Alaska and western Canada, and at 1 location in the subarctic, the Tutakoke River (TR) colony on the YKD, 1990–2015. We used joint live and dead mark‐recapture models to estimate first‐year and adult (≥1 yr old) survival of brant. We also used band recovery rates from a Brownie model to assess temporal trends in band recovery rates of adult brant. First‐year survival of brant hatched at TR declined from approximately 0.60 to <0.20 and, although first‐year survival generally was higher for goslings marked in the Arctic, their survival declined from approximately 0.70 in the early 1990s to ≤0.45 in the 2010s. Annual survival of adult females decreased from an average of 0.881 (95% CI = 0.877–0.885) to 0.822 (95% CI = 0.815–0.829) at TR and from 0.851 (95% CI = 0.843–0.860) to 0.821 (95% CI = 0.805–0.836) in the Arctic, from 1990 to 2014. Band recovery rates of adults generally were <1.25% until the last several years of study, when they reached ≤3.5%. Although the current harvest rates may be partially additive to natural mortality, we do not believe that harvest is the main influence on the declines in survival. The general decline in survival rates of brant breeding across a large geographic area may be influenced by a reduction in the quality of migration and wintering ground habitats. We suggest an analysis of seasonal survival of brant to test the hypothesis that declining habitat quality on wintering or spring migration areas is reducing survival. Our results suggest that the number of breeding pairs at TR will continue to decline and also brings into question the ability of arctic breeding populations to grow at a rate necessary to offset the declines on the YKD. Researchers should continue to closely monitor survival and harvest rates of brant, and assess methods currently used to monitor their abundance.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗