Geology topics

Adrian J. Das

Publications and source records attributed to Adrian J. Das.

54 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

USGS2018

Pre‐fire drought and competition mediate post‐fire conifer mortality in western U.S. National Parks

Tree mortality is an important outcome of many forest fires. Extensive tree injuries from fire may lead directly to mortality, but environmental and biological stressors may also contribute to tree death. However, there is little evidence showing how the combined effects of two common stressors, drought and competition, influence post‐fire mortality. Geographically broad observations of three common western coniferous trees subjected to prescribed fire showed the likelihood of post‐fire mortality was related to intermediate‐term (10 yr) pre‐fire average radial growth, an important component of tree vigor. Path analysis showed that indices of competition and drought stress prior to fire can be described in terms of joint effects on growth, indirectly affecting post‐fire mortality. Our results suggest that the conditions that govern the relationship between growth and mortality in unburned stands may also apply to post‐fire environments. Thus, biotic and abiotic changes that affect growth negatively (e.g., drought stress) or positively (e.g., growth releases following thinning treatments) prior to fire may influence expressed fire severity, independent of fire intensity (e.g., heat flux, residence time). These relationships suggest that tree mortality may increase under stressful climatic or stand conditions even if fire behavior remains constant.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2018

Individual species–area relationships in temperate coniferous forests

Questions What drives individual species–area relationships in temperate coniferous forests? Location Two 25.6‐ha forest plots on the Pacific Slope of North America, one in California, and one in Washington State. Methods We mapped all trees ≥1 cm in diameter and examined tree species diversity of their local neighbourhoods by calculating the individual species–area relationship for each species and for each of three diameter classes (saplings, mature trees and large‐diameter trees). Results In the California plot, small trees in four of the five major species occurred in neighbourhoods with higher levels of diversity than would be expected at random. In the Washington plot, small trees for four of five abundant species had neighbourhoods with lower than expected diversity at distances ≤5 m for small trees. However, at distances >5 m, all five species showed higher than expected diversity in their neighbourhoods. Larger trees at both plots tended to occur in neighbourhoods with lower than expected diversity, and no large‐diameter focal species had neighbourhoods with higher than expected diversity. Conclusion Diversity and co‐existence in temperate conifer‐dominated forests do not appear to be the result of random processes. Competitive interactions appear to dominate for the largest trees of most species, resulting in neighbourhoods with lower diversity. For smaller trees, we suggest that a positive response to environmental heterogeneity is the likely driver of neighbourhoods with higher than expected diversity, although we cannot rule out the possibility that facilitation or conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD) also play a role.

Journal of Vegetation Science↗

USGS2018

Patterns and correlates of giant sequoia foliage dieback during California’s 2012–2016 hotter drought

Hotter droughts – droughts in which unusually high temperatures exacerbate the effects of low precipitation – are expected to increase in frequency and severity in coming decades, challenging scientists and managers to identify which parts of forested landscapes may be most vulnerable. In 2014, in the middle of California’s historically unprecedented 2012–2016 hotter drought, we noticed apparently drought-induced foliage dieback in giant sequoias ( Sequoiadendron giganteum Lindl. [Buchholz]) in Sequoia and Kings Canyon national parks, California. Characteristics of the dieback were consistent with a controlled process of drought-induced senescence: younger (distal) shoots remained green while older (proximal) shoots were preferentially shed. As part of an ongoing interdisciplinary effort to understand and map sequoia vulnerability to hotter droughts, we reviewed historical records for evidence of previous foliage dieback events, surveyed dieback along trail corridors in eight sequoia groves, and analyzed tree-ring data from a high- and a low-foliage-dieback area. In sharp contrast to the greatly elevated mortality of other coniferous species found at low and middle elevations, we estimate that <1% of sequoias died during the drought. Foliage dieback was notably elevated in 2014 – the most severe single drought year in our 122-year record – but much lower in subsequent years. We found no historical records of similar foliage dieback during previous droughts. Dieback in 2014 was highly variable both within and among groves, ranging from virtually no dieback in some areas to nearly 50% in others. Dieback was highest (1) at low elevations, probably due to higher temperatures, reduced snowpack, and earlier snowmelt; (2) in areas of low adult sequoia densities, which likely reflect intrinsically more stressful sites; and (3) on steep slopes, probably reflecting reduced water availability. Average sequoia ring widths were narrower at the high-dieback than the low-dieback tree-ring site, but for reasons that remain unclear the sites did not differ in their proportional ring-width responses to past droughts. Collectively, our results suggest that giant sequoia vulnerability to hotter droughts may be spatially quite variable, and that at least some of that variability can be explained by metrics related to site water balance. Future research will focus on integrating our results with physiological and remote-sensing data, including tracking sequoias as they recover from the drought.

California↗

USGS2018

Landscape-scale variation in canopy water content of giant sequoias during drought

Recent drought (2012–2016) caused unprecedented foliage dieback in giant sequoias ( Sequoiadendron giganteum ), a species endemic to the western slope of the southern Sierra Nevada in central California. As part of an effort to understand and map sequoia response to droughts, we studied the patterns of remotely sensed canopy water content (CWC), both within and among sequoia groves in two successive years during the drought period (2015 and 2016). Our aims were: (1) to quantify giant sequoia responses to severe drought stress at a landscape scale using CWC as an indicator of crown foliage status, and (2) to estimate the effect of environmental correlates that mediate CWC change within and among giant sequoia groves. We utilized airborne high fidelity imaging spectroscopy (HiFIS) and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data from the Carnegie Airborne Observatory to assess giant sequoia foliage status during 2015 and 2016 of the 2012–2016 droughts. A series of statistical models were generated to classify giant sequoias and to map their location in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SEKI) and vicinity. We explored the environmental correlates and the spatial patterns of CWC change at the landscape scale. The mapped CWC was highly variable throughout the landscape during the two observation years, and proved to be most closely related to geological substrates, topography, and site-specific water balance. While there was an overall net gain in sequoia CWC between 2015 and 2016, certain locations (lower elevations, steeper slopes, areas more distant from surface water sources, and areas with greater climate water deficit) showed CWC losses. In addition, we found greater CWC loss in shorter sequoias and those growing in areas with lower sequoia stem densities. Our results suggest that CWC change indicates sequoia response to droughts across landscapes. Long-term monitoring of giant sequoia CWC will likely be useful for modeling and predicting their population-level response to future climate change.

California↗

USGS2018

Remote measurement of canopy water content in giant sequoias (Sequoiadendron giganteum) during drought

California experienced severe drought from 2012 to 2016, and there were visible changes in the forest canopy throughout the State. In 2014, unprecedented foliage dieback was recorded in giant sequoia ( Sequoiadendron giganteum ) trees in Sequoia National Park, in the southern California Sierra Nevada mountains. Although visible changes in sequoia canopies can be recorded, biochemical and physiological responses to drought stress in giant sequoia canopies are not well understood. Ground-based measurements provide insight into the mechanisms of drought responses in trees, but are often limited to few individuals, especially in trees of tall stature such as giant sequoia. Recent studies demonstrate that remotely measured forest canopy water content (CWC) is a general indicator of canopy response to drought, but the underpinning leaf- to canopy-level causes of observed variation in CWC remain poorly understood. We combined field and airborne remote sensing measurements taken in 2015 and 2016 to assess the biophysical responses of giant sequoias to drought. In 49 study trees, CWC was related to leaf water potential, but not to the other foliar traits, suggesting that changes in CWC were made at whole-canopy rather than leaf scales. We found a non-random, spatially varying pattern in mapped CWC, with lower CWC values at lower elevation and along the outer edges of the groves. This pattern was also observed in empirical measurements of foliage dieback from the ground, and in mapped CWC across multiple sequoia groves in this region, supporting the hypothesis that drought stress is expressed in canopy-level changes in giant sequoias. The fact that we can clearly detect a relationship between CWC and foliage dieback, even without taking into account prior variability or new leaf growth, strongly suggests that remotely sensed CWC, and changes in CWC, are a useful measure of water stress in giant sequoia, and valuable for assessing and managing these iconic forests in drought.

California↗

USGS2018

Leaf to landscape responses of giant sequoia to hotter drought: An introduction and synthesis for the special section

Hotter droughts are becoming more common as climate change progresses, and they may already have caused instances of forest dieback on all forested continents. Learning from hotter droughts, including where on the landscape forests are more or less vulnerable to these events, is critical to help resource managers proactively prepare for the future. As part of our Leaf to Landscape Project, we measured the response of giant sequoia, the world’s largest tree species, to the extreme 2012–2016 hotter drought in California. The project integrated leaf-level physiology measurements, crown-level foliage dieback surveys, and remotely sensed canopy water content (CWC) to shed light on mechanisms and spatial patterns in drought response. Here we summarize initial findings, present a conceptual model of drought response, and discuss management implications; details are presented in the other four articles of the special section on Giant Sequoias and Drought. Giant sequoias exhibited both leaf- and canopy-level responses that were effective in protecting whole-tree hydraulic integrity for the vast majority of individual sequoias. Very few giant sequoias died during the drought compared to other mixed conifer tree species; however, the magnitude of sequoia drought response varied across the landscape. This variability was partially explained by local site characteristics, including variables related to site water balance . We found that low CWC is an indicator of recent foliage dieback, which occurs when stress levels are high enough that leaf-level adjustments alone are insufficient for giant sequoias to maintain hydraulic integrity. CWC or change in CWC may be useful indicators of drought stress that reveal patterns of vulnerability to future hotter droughts. Future work will measure recovery from the drought and strengthen our ability to interpret CWC maps. Our ultimate goal is to produce giant sequoia vulnerability maps to help target management actions, such as reducing other stressors, increasing resistance to hotter drought through prescribed fire or mechanical thinning, and planting sequoias in projected future suitable habitat, which may occur outside current grove distributions. We suggest that managers compare different types of vulnerability assessments and combine vulnerability maps with other sources of information to inform decisions.

California↗

USGS2017

What mediates tree mortality during drought in the southern Sierra Nevada?

Severe drought has the potential to cause selective mortality within a forest, thereby inducing shifts in forest species composition. The southern Sierra Nevada foothills and mountains of California have experienced extensive forest dieback due to drought stress and insect outbreak. We used high-fidelity imaging spectroscopy (HiFIS) and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) from the Carnegie Airborne Observatory (CAO) to estimate the effect of forest dieback on species composition in response to drought stress in Sequoia National Park. Our aims were: (1) to quantify site-specific conditions that mediate tree mortality along an elevation gradient in the southern Sierra Nevada Mountains; (2) to assess where mortality events have a greater probability of occurring; and (3) to estimate which tree species have a greater likelihood of mortality along the elevation gradient. A series of statistical models were generated to classify species composition and identify tree mortality, and the influences of different environmental factors were spatially quantified and analyzed to assess where mortality events have a greater likelihood of occurring. A higher probability of mortality was observed in the lower portion of the elevation gradient, on southwest and west-facing slopes, in areas with shallow soils, on shallower slopes, and at greater distances from water. All of these factors are related to site water balance throughout the landscape. Our results also suggest that mortality is species-specific along the elevation gradient, mainly affecting Pinus ponderosa and Pinus lambertiana at lower elevations. Selective mortality within the forest may drive long-term shifts in community composition along the elevation gradient.

Sierra Nevada↗

USGS2017

Seasonal and diel environmental conditions predict western pond turtle (Emys marmorata) behavior at a perennial and an ephemeral stream in Sequoia National Park, California

Managers making decisions may benefit from a well-informed understanding of a species' population size and trends. Given the cryptic nature and habitat characteristics of the western pond turtle ( Emys marmorata ), however, imperfect detection may be high and population estimates are frequently varied and unreliable. As a case study to investigate this issue, we used temperature dataloggers to examine turtle behavior at 2 long-term monitoring sites with different hydrological characteristics in Sequoia National Park, California, to determine if common stream-survey techniques are consistent with site-specific turtle behavior. Sycamore Creek is an intermittent stream that dries up every summer while the North Fork Kaweah River flows year-round. We found that while turtles spent most of the recorded time in the water (55% in Sycamore Creek and 82% in the North Fork Kaweah River), the timing of traditional surveys only coincided with the turtles' aquatic activity in the North Fork Kaweah River. At Sycamore Creek, turtles were most likely to be in the water at night. In contrast, failure to detect turtles in North Fork Kaweah River is likely owing to the larger size and complexity of the underwater habitat. In both streams, turtles were also more likely to be in the water in the weeks leading up to important changes in hydroperiods. Our findings illustrate the effects that differences in water permanence can have on turtle behavior within the same watershed and how phenotypic plasticity may then affect detection during surveys. Our study highlights the importance of tailoring survey practices to the site-specific behavioral traits of the target species.

California↗

USGS2016

A synthesis of radial growth patterns preceding tree mortality

Tree mortality is a key factor influencing forest functions and dynamics, but our understanding of the mechanisms leading to mortality and the associated changes in tree growth rates are still limited. We compiled a new pan-continental tree-ring width database from sites where both dead and living trees were sampled (2970 dead and 4224 living trees from 190 sites, including 36 species), and compared early and recent growth rates between trees that died and those that survived a given mortality event. We observed a decrease in radial growth before death in ca. 84% of the mortality events. The extent and duration of these reductions were highly variable (1–100 years in 96% of events) due to the complex interactions among study species and the source(s) of mortality. Strong and long-lasting declines were found for gymnosperms, shade- and drought-tolerant species, and trees that died from competition. Angiosperms and trees that died due to biotic attacks (especially bark-beetles) typically showed relatively small and short-term growth reductions. Our analysis did not highlight any universal trade-off between early growth and tree longevity within a species, although this result may also reflect high variability in sampling design among sites. The intersite and interspecific variability in growth patterns before mortality provides valuable information on the nature of the mortality process, which is consistent with our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to mortality. Abrupt changes in growth immediately before death can be associated with generalized hydraulic failure and/or bark-beetle attack, while long-term decrease in growth may be associated with a gradual decline in hydraulic performance coupled with depletion in carbon reserves. Our results imply that growth-based mortality algorithms may be a powerful tool for predicting gymnosperm mortality induced by chronic stress, but not necessarily so for angiosperms and in case of intense drought or bark-beetle outbreaks.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2016

Does prescribed fire promote resistance to drought in low elevation forests of the Sierra Nevada, California, USA?

Prescribed fire is a primary tool used to restore western forests following more than a century of fire exclusion, reducing fire hazard by removing dead and live fuels (small trees and shrubs). It is commonly assumed that the reduced forest density following prescribed fire also reduces competition for resources among the remaining trees, so that the remaining trees are more resistant (more likely to survive) in the face of additional stressors, such as drought. Yet this proposition remains largely untested, so that managers do not have the basic information to evaluate whether prescribed fire may help forests adapt to a future of more frequent and severe drought. During the third year of drought, in 2014, we surveyed 9950 trees in 38 burned and 18 unburned mixed conifer forest plots at low elevation (<2100 m a.s.l.) in Kings Canyon, Sequoia, and Yosemite national parks in California, USA. Fire had occurred in the burned plots from 6 yr to 28 yr before our survey. After accounting for differences in individual tree diameter, common conifer species found in the burned plots had significantly reduced probability of mortality compared to unburned plots during the drought. Stand density (stems ha -1 ) was significantly lower in burned versus unburned sites, supporting the idea that reduced competition may be responsible for the differential drought mortality response. At the time of writing, we are not sure if burned stands will maintain lower tree mortality probabilities in the face of the continued, severe drought of 2015. Future work should aim to better identify drought response mechanisms and how these may vary across other forest types and regions, particularly in other areas experiencing severe drought in the Sierra Nevada and on the Colorado Plateau.

California↗

USGS2016

Why do trees die? Characterizing the drivers of background tree mortality

The drivers of background tree mortality rates—the typical low rates of tree mortality found in forests in the absence of acute stresses like drought—are central to our understanding of forest dynamics, the effects of ongoing environmental changes on forests, and the causes and consequences of geographical gradients in the nature and strength of biotic interactions. To shed light on factors contributing to background tree mortality, we analyzed detailed pathological data from 200,668 tree-years of observation and 3,729 individual tree deaths, recorded over a 13-yr period in a network of old-growth forest plots in California's Sierra Nevada mountain range. We found that: (1) Biotic mortality factors (mostly insects and pathogens) dominated (58%), particularly in larger trees (86%). Bark beetles were the most prevalent (40%), even though there were no outbreaks during the study period; in contrast, the contribution of defoliators was negligible. (2) Relative occurrences of broad classes of mortality factors (biotic, 58%; suppression, 51%; and mechanical, 25%) are similar among tree taxa, but may vary with tree size and growth rate. (3) We found little evidence of distinct groups of mortality factors that predictably occur together on trees. Our results have at least three sets of implications. First, rather than being driven by abiotic factors such as lightning or windstorms, the “ambient” or “random” background mortality that many forest models presume to be independent of tree growth rate is instead dominated by biotic agents of tree mortality, with potentially critical implications for forecasting future mortality. Mechanistic models of background mortality, even for healthy, rapidly growing trees, must therefore include the insects and pathogens that kill trees. Second, the biotic agents of tree mortality, instead of occurring in a few predictable combinations, may generally act opportunistically and with a relatively large degree of independence from one another. Finally, beyond the current emphasis on folivory and leaf defenses, studies of broad-scale gradients in the nature and strength of biotic interactions should also include biotic attacks on, and defenses of, tree stems and roots.

Ecology↗

USGS2015

Improving estimates of tree mortality probability using potential growth rate

Tree growth rate is frequently used to estimate mortality probability. Yet, growth metrics can vary in form, and the justification for using one over another is rarely clear. We tested whether a growth index (GI) that scales the realized diameter growth rate against the potential diameter growth rate (PDGR) would give better estimates of mortality probability than other measures. We also tested whether PDGR, being a function of tree size, might better correlate with the baseline mortality probability than direct measurements of size such as diameter or basal area. Using a long-term dataset from the Sierra Nevada, California, U.S.A., as well as existing species-specific estimates of PDGR, we developed growth–mortality models for four common species. For three of the four species, models that included GI, PDGR, or a combination of GI and PDGR were substantially better than models without them. For the fourth species, the models including GI and PDGR performed roughly as well as a model that included only the diameter growth rate. Our results suggest that using PDGR can improve our ability to estimate tree survival probability. However, in the absence of PDGR estimates, the diameter growth rate was the best empirical predictor of mortality, in contrast to assumptions often made in the literature.

California↗

USGS2015

The influence of prefire tree growth and crown condition on postfire mortality of sugar pine following prescribed fire in Sequoia National Park

Tree mortality is a vital component of forest management in the context of prescribed fires; however, few studies have examined the effect of prefire tree health on postfire mortality. This is especially relevant for sugar pine ( Pinus lambertiana Douglas), a species experiencing population declines due to a suite of anthropogenic factors. Using data from an old-growth mixed-conifer forest in Sequoia National Park, we evaluated the effects of fire, tree size, prefire radial growth, and crown condition on postfire mortality. Models based only on tree size and measures of fire damage were compared with models that included tree size, fire damage, and prefire tree health (e.g., measures of prefire tree radial growth or crown condition). Immediately following the fire, the inclusion of different metrics of prefire tree health produced variable improvements over the models that included only tree size and measures of fire damage, as models that included measures of crown condition performed better than fire-only models, but models that included measures of prefire radial growth did not perform better. However, 5 years following the fire, sugar pine mortality was best predicted by models that included measures of both fire damage and prefire tree health, specifically, diameter at breast height (DBH, 1.37 m), crown scorch, 30-year mean growth, and the number of sharp declines in growth over a 30-year period. This suggests that factors that influence prefire tree health (e.g., drought, competition, pathogens, etc.) may partially determine postfire mortality, especially when accounting for delayed mortality following fire.

California↗

USGS2014

An individual-based growth and competition model for coastal redwood forest restoration

Thinning treatments to accelerate coastal redwood forest stand development are in wide application, but managers have yet to identify prescriptions that might best promote Sequoia sempervirens (Lamb. ex D. Don) Endl. (redwood) growth. The creation of successful thinning prescriptions would be aided by identifying the underlying mechanisms governing how individual tree growth responds to competitive environments in coastal redwood forests. We created a spatially explicit individual-based model of tree competition and growth parameterized using surveys of upland redwood forests at Redwood National Park, California. We modeled competition for overstory trees (stems ≥ 20 cm stem diameter at breast height, 1.37 m (dbh)) as growth reductions arising from sizes, distances, and species identity of competitor trees. Our model explained up to half of the variation in individual tree growth, suggesting that neighborhood crowding is an important determinant of growth in this forest type. We used our model to simulate the effects of novel thinning prescriptions (e.g., 40% stand basal area removal) for redwood forest restoration, concluding that these treatments could lead to substantial growth releases, particularly for S. sempervirens . The results of this study, along with continued improvements to our model, will help to determine spacing and species composition that best encourage growth.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research↗

USGS2014

Beyond reducing fire hazard: fuel treatment impacts on overstory tree survival

Fuel treatment implementation in dry forest types throughout the western United States is likely to increase in pace and scale in response to increasing incidence of large wildfires. While it is clear that properly implemented fuel treatments are effective at reducing hazardous fire potential, there are ancillary ecological effects that can impact forest resilience either positively or negatively depending on the specific elements examined, as well as treatment type, timing, and intensity. In this study, we use overstory tree growth responses, measured seven years after the most common fuel treatments, to estimate forest health. Across the five species analyzed, observed mortality and future vulnerability were consistently low in the mechanical-only treatment. Fire-only was similar to the control for all species except Douglas-fir, while mechanical-plus-fire had high observed mortality and future vulnerability for white fir and sugar pine. Given that overstory trees largely dictate the function of forests and services they provide (e.g., wildlife habitat, carbon sequestration, soil stability) these results have implications for understanding longer-term impacts of common fuel treatments on forest resilience.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2013

Climatic correlates of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests

Recent increases in tree mortality rates across the western USA are correlated with increasing temperatures, but mechanisms remain unresolved. Specifically, increasing mortality could predominantly be a consequence of temperature-induced increases in either (1) drought stress, or (2) the effectiveness of tree-killing insects and pathogens. Using long-term data from California’s Sierra Nevada mountain range, we found that in water-limited (low-elevation) forests mortality was unambiguously best modeled by climatic water deficit, consistent with the first mechanism. In energy-limited (high-elevation) forests deficit models were only equivocally better than temperature models, suggesting that the second mechanism is increasingly important in these forests. We could not distinguish between models predicting mortality using absolute versus relative changes in water deficit, and these two model types led to different forecasts of mortality vulnerability under future climate scenarios. Our results provide evidence for differing climatic controls of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests, while highlighting the need for an improved understanding of tree mortality processes.

California↗

USGS2013

A natural resource condition assessment for Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks: Appendix 22: climatic change

Climate is a master controller of the structure, composition, and function of biotic communities, affecting them both directly, through physiological effects, and indirectly, by mediating biotic interactions and by influencing disturbance regimes. Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Park’s (SEKI’s) dramatic elevational changes in biotic communities -- from warm mediterranean to cold alpine -- are but one manifestation of climate’s overarching importance in shaping SEKI’s landscape. Yet humans are now altering the global climate, with measurable effects on ecosystems (IPCC 2007). Over the last few decades across the western United States, human-induced climatic changes have likely contributed to observed declines in fraction of precipitation falling as snow and snowpack water content (Mote et al. 2005, Knowles et al. 2006), advance in spring snowmelt (Stewart et al. 2005, Barnett et al. 2008), and consequent increase in area burned in wildfires (Westerling et al. 2006). In the Sierra Nevada, warming temperatures have likely contributed to observed glacial recession (Basagic 2008), uphill migration of small mammals (Moritz et al. 2008), and increasing tree mortality rates (van Mantgem and Stephenson 2007, van Mantgem et al. 2009). More substantial changes can be expected for the future (e.g., IPCC 2007). Given the central importance of climate and climatic changes, we sought to describe long-term trends in temperature and precipitation at SEKI. Time and budget constraints limited us to analyses of mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation, using readily-available data. If funds become available in the future, further analyses will be needed to analyze trends by season, trends in daily minimum and maximum temperatures, and so on. We chose to analyze data from individual weather stations rather than use interpolated climatic data from sources such as PRISM (http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/). In topographically complex mountainous regions with few weather stations, like SEKI, the addition or subtraction of even a single weather station through time has the potential to significantly bias trends in interpolated data. In particular, this analysis was motivated by our questioning of some PRISM results presented in Appendix 1 (Landscape Context) that compared temperature averages between two 30-year periods of the 20th Century. Figures 6 and 11 of Appendix 1 indicate that recent (1971-2000) temperatures in northern Kings Canyon National Park averaged some 2° C cooler than those of 1911-1940. This would represent a truly profound and persistent cooling, and seems to be at odds both with the glacial retreats observed in the area over the century (Basagic 2008), and with the reported PRISM warming of nearly 2° C just to the west of the cooling (see Figs. 6 and 11 in Appendix 1). We suspect that the extreme localized Kings Canyon cooling reported by PRISM is an artifact of sparsely-distributed weather stations in the region being added and discontinued over the span of the 20th Century. For example, data from the Western Regional Climate Center (http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/coopmap/) suggest that for the period 1911 through 1924 PRISM must interpolate northern Kings Canyon temperatures based on a few low-elevation stations -- separated by hundreds of kilometers -- in Nevada and California’s San Joaquin Valley. In contrast, by 1970 PRISM interpolations will be dominated by closer, higher-elevation stations (see this report). The single weather station closest to northern Kings Canyon that has a temperature record at least partly spanning Appendix 1’s two 30-year time periods -- the Independence station, with a relatively continuous temperature record starting in 1925 -- shows a modest warming, not a cooling, between 1925-1940 and 1971-2000, further casting doubt on the Kings Canyon cooling shown in Figs. 6 and 11 of Appendix 1. If funds become available, it will be useful to more formally analyze potential PRISM biases in long-term SEKI climatic trends. Until then, the analyses of individual weather station records presented here (effectively an analysis of source data that PRISM uses) are meant to provide a robust summary of climatic changes in SEKI.

California↗

USGS2011

Comment on "Changes in climatic water balance drive downhill shifts in plant species' optimum elevations"

Crimmins et al . (Reports, 21 January 2011, p. 324) attributed an apparent downward elevational shift of California plant species to a precipitation-induced decline in climatic water deficit. We show that the authors miscalculated deficit, that the apparent decline in species’ elevations is likely a consequence of geographic biases, and that unlike temperature changes, precipitation changes should not be expected to cause coordinated directional shifts in species’ elevations.

California↗