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Geology topics

Adel E. Haj

Publications and source records attributed to Adel E. Haj.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

Ensemble methods for history matching and uncertainty quantification with a watershed model

History matching of large hydrologic models is challenging due to data sparsity and non-unique process combinations (and associated parameters) that can produce similar model predictions. We develop an ensemble-based history matching (and uncertainty quantification) approach using an iterative ensemble smoother (iES) method for three cutouts of the National Hydrologic Model (NHM) and qualitatively compare the results and performance to the stepwise history matching approach. In the latter approach, subsets of parameters and observations were sequentially calibrated to a diverse range of observations to mitigate non-uniqueness and local minima. In iES, localization simulates the same causal connections between parameters and observations without the need (and computational cost) of sequential history matching steps. iES uses a weighted sum-of-squared-errors objective function which allows differential weighting of multiple data sources. Formal adoption of range observation also pushes results to within ranges of observation values rather than discrete values. Overall, the ensemble approach performs similarly to the stepwise approach. Both approaches performed poorly for the cutout representing a snowmelt-dominated watershed, indicating a structural issue in the process representation of the model. The main advantage of iES is quantification of uncertainty in both the history matching and the predictions of interest.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

One Ranney well can make a difference: The impacts of a radial collector well on groundwater level and quality in the Cedar River alluvial aquifer

The City of Cedar Rapids, Iowa, depends on groundwater from the Cedar River alluvial aquifer for residential and industrial use. In 2020, the city completed an additional radial collector well, or Ranney well, and was concerned that pumping from the well at high rates may lower water level elevations in the aquifer, reduce yields from nearby production wells, and change the quality of produced water. During an operational test of the well's pumps, the U.S. Geological Survey and the city collected water level and water quality data to evaluate the effects of increased pumping rates on the aquifer and nearby production wells. Results indicated that a high rate of pumping from the new well caused sustained declines in water levels near the well and other nearby production wells, and, if maintained, the aquifer water level in the vicinity would continue to decline to levels observed during the 2012 drought. Aquifer specific conductance and temperature were altered and matched trends and values of the river, and river-to-well travel time was shortened from 7-17 days to about 3 days. Results may also provide insights to other municipal water resource managers when considering wellfield design, production expectations, and long-term management strategies for radial collector well production during drought, low streamflow, and times when high concentrations of nitrate-N or organic pesticide compounds in the river may limit production options.

Iowa

A steady-state groundwater flow model for the Des Moines River alluvial aquifer near Prospect Park, Des Moines, Iowa

The Des Moines River alluvial aquifer is an important source of water for Des Moines Water Works, the municipal water utility that provides residential and commercial water resources to the residents of Des Moines, Iowa, and surrounding municipalities. As an initial step in developing a better understanding of the groundwater resources of the Des Moines River alluvial aquifer, the U.S. Geological Survey constructed a steady-state numerical groundwater flow model in cooperation with Des Moines Water Works to simulate water-table elevations in the Des Moines River alluvial aquifer near Prospect Park in Des Moines under winter low-flow conditions. A simple conceptual model consisting of a hydrogeologic framework, water budget, and inferred water-table elevation map was developed for the model area. The inferred water-table elevation map was constructed based on general knowledge of hydrogeology within the model area and was used to set calibration targets for numerical model calibration. A steady-state numerical model was constructed based on the conceptual model using MODFLOW-NWT to simulate an area of about 15 square kilometers near Prospect Park in Des Moines. Parameter ESTimation software was used for model calibration to assess and optimize performance of the horizontal hydraulic conductivity and recharge parameters. The numerical groundwater flow model and supporting data are available in the USGS data release associated with this report, which contains the model archive. Performance of the calibrated steady-state model was assessed by comparing observed and simulated water-table elevations, as well as estimated and simulated contributions to streamflow within the model area. The difference between observed water-table elevations and simulated water-table elevations was −0.1 meter at the majority of calibration targets, with the negative value indicating an overestimation of the simulated water-table elevation value compared to the observed water-table elevation value, and the root mean square error was 0.13 meter, which represents about 20 percent of the difference in observed water-table elevations. The simulated value of contributions to streamflow within the model area was considered similar to the estimated value, increasing confidence in the ability of the model to accurately represent the groundwater flow system in the Des Moines River alluvial aquifer in the model area during winter low-flow conditions.

Iowa

Conceptual and numerical groundwater flow model of the Cedar River alluvial aquifer system with simulation of drought stress on groundwater availability near Cedar Rapids, Iowa, for 2011 through 2013

Between July 2011 and February 2013, the City of Cedar Rapids observed water level declines in their horizontal collector wells approaching 11 meters. As a result, pumping from these production wells had to be halted, and questions were raised about the reliability of the alluvial aquifer under future drought conditions. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Cedar Rapids, completed a study to better understand the effects of drought stress on the Cedar River alluvial aquifer using a numerical groundwater flow model. Previously published groundwater flow models were combined with newly collected airborne, waterborne, down-hole, and land-based geophysical survey data and provided a detailed three-dimensional lithologic model of the Cedar River alluvial aquifer and surrounding area. An improved conceptual model for the groundwater flow system and a lithologic model were used to build and inform a numerical groundwater flow model capable of simulating water levels observed in the City of Cedar Rapids horizontal collector wells during the 2012 drought. Model performance was assessed primarily on the ability of the model to simulate water table elevation at six monitoring wells. Statistical tests were used to assess the numerical model during the calibration period, and results varied from satisfactory to unsatisfactory, likely because of stage changes in the Cedar River and production well withdrawal rates near monitoring wells. Simulated water levels during the 2012 drought indicated a depression near the horizontal collector wells, although simulated elevations at these locations and at monitoring wells were generally overestimated compared to measured values. The numerical groundwater flow model was modified to account for a decrease in seepage rate caused by low flow in the Cedar River and increased production. With seepage rate modification, model results improved; the simulated water table elevations were like those observed in horizontal collector and monitoring wells. Results demonstrated the ability of the model to simulate water levels observed in the horizontal collector wells during the 2012 drought when accounting for a decrease in infiltration from the Cedar River.

Iowa

Effect of groundwater withdrawals, river stage, and precipitation on water-table elevations in the Iowa River alluvial aquifer near Tama, Iowa, 2017–20

The Sac and Fox Tribe of the Mississippi in Iowa is the only federally recognized Tribe in the State of Iowa and is commonly known as the Meskwaki Nation. The Tribe owns more than 8,100 acres, referred to as the “Meskwaki Settlement.” The Meskwaki Settlement uses a well field that withdraws water from the Iowa River alluvial aquifer (IRAA) to supply drinking water to members of the Tribe. Increased severity and timing of flooding and drought conditions, coupled with water-quality concerns in the Iowa River, have prompted the Meskwaki Nation to start identifying tools to provide a better understanding of how extreme climate events (changes in streamflow, flood frequency, and magnitude and persistence of drought conditions), increasing water-supply demands, and groundwater storage depletion will affect water availability in the IRAA. From June 2017 through September 2020, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Meskwaki Nation, collected continuous and discrete groundwater level data from 11 wells in a U.S. Geological Survey monitoring-well network. Groundwater level data collected at these wells were assessed with daily precipitation data and compared to changes in stream level elevations and daily groundwater withdrawals to determine how these changes affect groundwater-table elevations. Results from this study could be used to guide the development of a conceptual model for groundwater flow and a groundwater flow model for the IRAA to quantify and forecast the effect of groundwater withdrawals, Iowa River streamflow, and local precipitation on the water table in the IRAA.

Iowa

Hydrogeologic framework for characterization and occurrence of confined and unconfined aquifers in quaternary sediments in the glaciated conterminous United States—A digital map compilation and database

The U.S. Geological Survey has created a hydrogeologic framework for Quaternary sediments in glaciated areas of the conterminous United States that categorizes, maps, and characterizes the glacial sediments at and beneath the land surface. The hydrogeologic framework divides the glaciated United States into 17 distinct hydrogeologic terranes using a geologic approach based on previous mapping, and was characterized using the Glacial Environments and Surficial Sediments geodatabase compiled from the Quaternary Atlas of the United States map series, the Surficial Materials Map of the United States, and several Integrated Geologic Map Databases for the United States; a groundwater use database compiled from public-supply, water-well data; and a lithologic database compiled from State-managed well records and geologic logs. This framework is to be used to assess the occurrence and characteristics of confined and unconfined glacial aquifers, their distribution and extent, and their potential intrinsic susceptibility and vulnerability.

Data Series

Characterization and occurrence of confined and unconfined aquifers in Quaternary sediments in the glaciated conterminous United States

The glacial aquifer system, which is a collection of aquifers within Quaternary sediments in the glaciated conterminous United States, is a principal aquifer that supplies groundwater that serves about 42 million people and accounts for about 5 percent of the Nation’s drinking water. This aquifer system (the area of maximum glacial advance) underlies parts of 25 States and covers 1.87×10 6 square kilometers. A hydrogeologic framework is presented that divides the glaciated United States into 17 distinct hydrogeologic terranes using a geologic approach based on previous mapping. Each hydrogeologic terrane contains Quaternary sediment that is derived from a common depositional history and can be characterized by similar texture and thickness. Characteristics of Quaternary sediments are described using attributes computed from a lithologic database of well logs compiled from 24 States (excluding Kentucky). The hydrogeologic framework presents a nationwide picture of the glacial aquifer system and provides generalizations concerning the nature of aquifers within it (for example, whether the aquifers are shallow or deep, and unconfined or confined). In this way insights can be gained from understanding the similarities and differences in distinct parts of the glacial aquifer system and how they relate to water use and quality and to aquifer vulnerability. Delineation of hydrogeologic terranes was based on an interpretation of existing geologic mapping of Quaternary sediments and the thickness of unconsolidated material. Overall thickness of Quaternary sediment was used to qualitatively rank the generalized complexity of the hydrogeologic framework in each terrane: “lower” complexity (assigned a terrane code 1), “moderate” complexity (terrane code 2), and “higher” complexity (terrane code 3). Letter designations appended to the terrane codes (for example, 1A, 1B, or 1C) differentiate terranes of similar complexity. Two unique areas, where thick, stratified, coarse-grained sediment dominates, were assigned terrane code 4. Elements of this hydrogeologic framework include a glacial environments and surficial sediments geodatabase, which includes lithologic, geomorphic, and stratigraphic characterization of Quaternary sediments based on previous mapping; a gridded database of sediment and aquifer characteristics computed from lithologic logs obtained from water-well driller records; a water-use database with information on public-water supply systems and sources of groundwater; and estimated recharge computed from a geologically based soil-water balance model. A generalized map of the bedrock geology based on previous State-level mapping is included as well. Quaternary sediment in the glaciated United States includes glacial, postglacial (Holocene) and nonglacial sediments. At land surface, 60 percent of the glacial sediment is till. Large areas of outwash and ice contact sediments are extensive throughout the Midwest but generally are confined to valleys in the Northeast and the Northwest. Lacustrine sediments were deposited in proglacial lakes adjacent to the present Great Lakes and in glacial Lake Agassiz in the eastern Dakotas and northwestern Minnesota. The median thickness of Quaternary sediment ranges from 6 to 45 meters across the 17 hydrogeologic terranes, but the maximum thickness is more than 500 meters in some areas. Quaternary sediments generally contain less than 10 percent coarse material; the median range is near zero percent under till to about 50 percent under ice contact and outwash sediments. About 80 percent of the coarse material lies within 25 to 40 meters of land surface. In most of the glaciated United States, there is a small likelihood of penetrating an aquifer-material interval containing coarse material at least 3 meters thick. A single aquifer-material interval was recorded in about 44 percent of lithologic logs, whereas about 11 percent of the logs penetrated multiple intervals. About 44 percent of water wells in the lithologic database are completed in Quaternary sediment, and many of these Quaternary water wells (42 percent) are confined by at least 7.5 meters of fine materials. About 33 percent of these Quaternary water wells are unconfined—the remainder are where only thin layers (less than 3 meters) of coarse material are present. The median depths of Quaternary water wells range from 13 to 40 meters among the 17 hydrogeologic terranes. Recharge ranges from more than 400 millimeters per year in the Northeast to 11 millimeters or less per year in the Dakotas and Montana (median value of 136 millimeters per year). Annual groundwater withdrawals compiled by county range on an areal basis from less than 1 to 370 millimeters per year, and the mean is 7.4 millimeters per year. About 36 percent of the withdrawals are for public-water supply, of which 70 percent are derived from Quaternary sediments. Groundwater withdrawals are less than 10 percent of recharge throughout most of the glaciated conterminous United States but are a larger proportion of recharge near urban areas in the Northeast and the Midwest, and in counties throughout drier parts of the Midwest. The salient characteristics of the 17 hydrogeologic terranes are presented through maps and a set of descriptive plots to facilitate visual comparisons between selected sediment and aquifer characteristics. The thickness of Quaternary sediment generally increases from the lower complexity terranes through the higher complexity terranes, consistent with their delineation. Median proportions of coarse material in Quaternary sediment and depths to aquifer-material intervals are highly variable (less than 10 to 50 percent, and 0 to 30 meters, respectively). Median thicknesses of aquifer-material intervals generally fall within a narrow range (10 to 20 meters), except in two terranes that contain thick coarse-grained sediment (30 to 35 meters). The source of water in wells varies from mostly bedrock wells in the lower complexity terranes to mostly Quaternary wells in the higher complexity terranes where the sediment is thickest. A tree diagram compiled from a hierarchical cluster analysis of a matrix composed of metrics based on sediment and aquifer characteristics, and the distribution of water wells in each terrane, indicates some groups of terranes that can be treated as comparable when analyzing groundwater flow and quality. Aquifer-material intervals indicated on maps prepared from the lithologic logs, including unconfined and confined conditions, correlate well with aquifer systems delineated on state maps for Illinois, Indiana, and North Dakota. The large scale of the study limits the resolution at which the maps can be interpreted, however, and alluvial units are not mapped correctly for some valleys in the Northeast and the Northwest. Lithologic logs used in the study are biased toward shallow depths because not all logs penetrate the entire thickness of Quaternary sediment, but this bias should not limit the utility of the sediment and aquifer descriptions because shallow depths are commonly exploited for water supply. The hydrogeologic framework will support ongoing studies of groundwater flow and quality in the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment program for the glaciated United States.

Scientific Investigations Report

Delineation of selected lithologic units using airborne electromagnetic data near Cedar Rapids, Iowa

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Cedar Rapids, began a study in 2013 to better understand the effects of drought stress on the Cedar River alluvial aquifer. After an evaluation of the existing groundwater-flow models for the alluvial aquifer, a plan was begun to construct an updated groundwater-flow model capable of evaluating the effect of prolonged drought and increased demand. As part of the effort to update the existing groundwater-flow model, data were collected during an airborne electromagnetic (AEM) survey in May 2017. The study area for the AEM survey encompasses about 53 square kilometers of the Cedar River Basin, west of Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and includes a 19-kilometer reach of the Cedar River. The AEM survey of the Cedar River alluvial aquifer and adjacent areas was completed to characterize the subsurface geology of the area to refine a lithologic framework. The collected AEM data were postprocessed by numerical inversion using the program EM1DFM to produce subsurface apparent resistivity cross sections. Changes observed in resistivity profile values with depth were used to infer lithologic changes and delineate three of the four lithologic units designated in the lithologic framework for this area: alluvial deposits, glacial till, and bedrock; hereafter referred to as the “lithologic framework.” The fourth unit, composed of surficial eolian sediments, was not delineated in these profiles because these units are thin and discontinuous and are not reliably distinguishable from flood plain alluvial deposits. For the purposes of delineating lithologic units using the AEM data, bedrock was assumed to be the lowest unit in a profile, glacial till was deposited on a bedrock surface, and alluvium was deposited on erosional till or bedrock surfaces. A three-dimensional fence diagram was created as part of the lithologic framework to further define the extent and thickness of the lithologic units near the Cedar River alluvial aquifer. The fence diagram shows a three-dimensional perspective of unit thickness, extent, and orientation of the delineated lithologic framework. A lithologic framework, by design, is intended to represent a simplification of a more complex natural system through data interpolation between known points, which usually are lithologic logs. The resistivity profiles produced from the AEM survey allow for continuous mapping and accurate interpolation of lithology between lithologic logs; however, the apparent resistivity value may reflect several characteristics of subsurface materials including variations in lithology, porosity, water quality, grain sorting, and degree of saturation. In this study, the only variables considered were those related to changes in the subsurface material.

Iowa

Comparison of HSPF and PRMS model simulated flows using different temporal and spatial scales in the Black Hills, South Dakota

The hydrological simulation program Fortran ( HSPF ) [ Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran version 12.2 (Computer software). USEPA, Washington, DC] and the precipitation runoff modeling system ( PRMS ) [ Precipitation Runoff Modeling System version 4.0 (Computer software). USGS, Reston, VA] models are semidistributed, deterministic hydrological tools for simulating the impacts of precipitation, land use, and climate on basin hydrology and streamflow. Both models have been applied independently to many watersheds across the United States. This paper reports the statistical results assessing various temporal (daily, monthly, and annual) and spatial (small versus large watershed) scale biases in HSPF and PRMS simulations using two watersheds in the Black Hills, South Dakota. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Pearson correlation coefficient ( r "> r r ), and coefficient of determination ( R 2 "> R 2 R2 ) statistics for the daily, monthly, and annual flows were used to evaluate the models’ performance. Results from the HSPF models showed that the HSPF consistently simulated the annual flows for both large and small basins better than the monthly and daily flows, and the simulated flows for the small watershed better than flows for the large watershed. In comparison, the PRMS model results show that the PRMS simulated the monthly flows for both the large and small watersheds better than the daily and annual flows, and the range of statistical error in the PRMS models was greater than that in the HSPF models. Moreover, it can be concluded that the statistical error in the HSPF and the PRMS daily, monthly, and annual flow estimates for watersheds in the Black Hills was influenced by both temporal and spatial scale variability.

South Dakota

Simulation of daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, constructed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models to estimate daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa that drain into the Missouri River. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of streamflow and general drainage basin hydrology to various combinations of climate and land use. Calibration periods for each basin varied depending on the period of record available for daily mean streamflow measurements at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations. A geographic information system tool was used to delineate each basin and estimate initial values for model parameters based on basin physical and geographical features. A U.S. Geological Survey automatic calibration tool that uses a shuffled complex evolution algorithm was used for initial calibration, and then manual modifications were made to parameter values to complete the calibration of each basin model. The main objective of the calibration was to match daily discharge values of simulated streamflow to measured daily discharge values. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was calibrated at 42 sites located in the 12 river basins in western Iowa. The accuracy of the simulated daily streamflow values at the 42 calibration sites varied by river and by site. The models were satisfactory at 36 of the sites based on statistical results. Unsatisfactory performance at the six other sites can be attributed to several factors: (1) low flow, no flow, and flashy flow conditions in headwater subbasins having a small drainage area; (2) poor representation of the groundwater and storage components of flow within a basin; (3) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and water use; and (4) limited availability and accuracy of meteorological input data. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models of 12 river basins in western Iowa will provide water-resource managers with a consistent and documented method for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites and aid in environmental studies, hydraulic design, water management, and water-quality projects.

Iowa

Potential effects of climate change on streamflow for seven watersheds in eastern and central Montana

Study region Eastern and central Montana. Study focus Fish in Northern Great Plains streams tolerate extreme conditions including heat, cold, floods, and drought; however changes in streamflow associated with long-term climate change may render some prairie streams uninhabitable for current fish species. To better understand future hydrology of these prairie streams, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and output from the RegCM3 Regional Climate model were used to simulate streamflow for seven watersheds in eastern and central Montana, for a baseline period (water years 1982–1999) and three future periods: water years 2021–2038 (2030 period), 2046–2063 (2055 period), and 2071–2088 (2080 period). New hydrological insights for the region Projected changes in mean annual and mean monthly streamflow vary by the RegCM3 model selected, by watershed, and by future period. Mean annual streamflows for all future periods are projected to increase (11–21%) for two of the four central Montana watersheds: Middle Musselshell River and Cottonwood Creek. Mean annual streamflows for all future periods are projected to decrease (changes of −24 to −75%) for Redwater River watershed in eastern Montana. Mean annual streamflows are projected to increase slightly (2–15%) for the 2030 period and decrease (changes of −16 to −44%) for the 2080 period for the four remaining watersheds.

Montana

Simulation of daily streamflow for nine river basins in eastern Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, constructed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models to estimate daily streamflow for nine river basins in eastern Iowa that drain into the Mississippi River. The models are part of a suite of methods for estimating daily streamflow at ungaged sites. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed- parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of streamflow and general drainage basin hydrology to various combinations of climate and land use. Calibration and validation periods used in each basin mostly were October 1, 2002, through September 30, 2012, but differed depending on the period of record available for daily mean streamflow measurements at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations. A geographic information system tool was used to delineate each basin and estimate values for model parameters based on basin physical and geographical features. A U.S. Geological Survey auto-calibration tool that uses a shuffled complex evolution algorithm was used for initial calibration, and then manual modifications were made to parameter values to complete the calibration of each basin model. The main objective of the calibration was to match daily discharge values of simulated streamflow to measured daily discharge values. The accuracy of Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model streamflow estimates of nine river basins in eastern Iowa as compared to measured values at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations varied. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models of nine river basins in eastern Iowa were satisfactory at estimating daily streamflow at 57 of the 79 calibration sites and 13 of the 14 validation sites based on statistical results. Unsatisfactory performance can be contributed to several factors: (1) low flow, no flow, and flashy flow conditions in headwater subbasins having a small drainage area; (2) poor representation of the groundwater and storage components of flow within a basin; (3) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and water use; and (4) the availability and accuracy of meteorological input data. The Precipitation- Runoff Modeling System models of nine river basins in eastern Iowa will provide water-resource managers with a consistent and documented method for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites and aid in environmental studies, hydraulic design, water management, and water-quality projects.

Iowa

Fluvial sediment fingerprinting: literature review and annotated bibliography

The U.S. Geological Survey has evaluated and adopted various field methods for collecting real-time sediment and nutrient data. These methods have proven to be valuable representations of sediment and nutrient concentrations and loads but are not able to accurately identify specific source areas. Recently, more advanced data collection and analysis techniques have been evaluated that show promise in identifying specific source areas. Application of field methods could include studies of sources of fluvial sediment, otherwise referred to as sediment “fingerprinting.” The identification of sediment is important, in part, because knowing the primary sediment source areas in watersheds ensures that best management practices are incorporated in areas that maximize reductions in sediment loadings. This report provides a literature review and annotated bibliography of existing methodologies applied in the field of fluvial sediment fingerprinting. This literature review provides a bibliography of publications where sediment fingerprinting methods have been used; however, this report is not assumed to provide an exhaustive listing. Selected publications were categorized by methodology with some additional summary information. The information contained in the summary may help researchers select methods better suited to their particular study or study area, and identify methods in need of more testing and application.

Open-File Report

The effects of Missouri River mainstem reservoir system operations on 2011 flooding using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model

In 2011 the Missouri River Mainstem Reservoir System (Reservoir System) experienced the largest volume of flood waters since the initiation of record-keeping in the nineteenth century. The high levels of runoff from both snowpack and rainfall stressed the Reservoir System’s capacity to control flood waters and caused massive damage and disruption along the river. The flooding and resulting damage along the Missouri River brought increased public attention to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operation of the Reservoir System. To help understand the effects of Reservoir System operation on the 2011 Missouri River flood flows, the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System was used to construct a model of the Missouri River Basin to simulate flows at streamgages and dam locations with the effects of Reservoir System operation (regulation) on flow removed. Statistical tests indicate that the Missouri River Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model is a good fit for high-flow monthly and annual stream flow estimation. A comparison of simulated unregulated flows and measured regulated flows show that regulation greatly reduced spring peak flow events, consolidated two summer peak flow events to one with a markedly decreased magnitude, and maintained higher than normal base flow beyond the end of water year 2011. Further comparison of results indicate that without regulation, flows greater than those measured would have occurred and been sustained for much longer, frequently in excess of 30 days, and flooding associated with high-flow events would have been more severe.

Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Monta