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Geology topics

Adam R Ray

Publications and source records attributed to Adam R Ray.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Rare habitats, rare species, and invasive predators highlight management complexities in the Colorado River system

Long-term drought caused Lake Powell, a reservoir on the Colorado River (USA), to decline to its lowest elevation in >50 years during 2022–2023, allowing warm water to pass through intakes of Glen Canyon Dam and facilitating invasion by non-native Smallmouth Bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ). Establishment of bass downstream of the dam could threaten persistence of several native fishes, including two federally listed species. Subsequent detection of larval Smallmouth Bass in a spring-fed slough (river mile -12 slough) connected to the river in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area (NRA) increased urgency to stem further invasion. The National Park Service is evaluating proposed actions to limit effects from non-native predators on native species in the Colorado River, including potentially channelizing the slough. This locally rare, spring-fed waterbody provides habitat for other species, including Western Tiger Salamanders ( Ambystoma mavortium subsp.) of uncertain origin. We found salamanders from the slough had two distinct mitochondrial DNA haplotypes identical to sequences from nearby Arizona Tiger Salamander ( A. m. nebulosum ) populations, confirming they are the native genotype. We detected Red-spotted Toads ( Anaxyrus punctatus ) and Woodhouse’s Toads ( A. woodhousii ) from three other sites in Glen Canyon NRA and 34 sites in adjacent, downstream Grand Canyon National Park (spanning ∼464 km of river) with environmental DNA and traditional surveys. However, we did not detect salamanders elsewhere, matching prior information that salamanders are rare in the Colorado River corridor below Glen Canyon Dam. Based on this information, we discuss management options for the local population of Arizona Tiger Salamanders.

BioRxiv

Using cure models for analyzing the influence of pathogens on salmon survival

Parasites and pathogens influence the size and stability of wildlife populations, yet many population models ignore the population-level effects of pathogens. Standard survival analysis methods (e.g., accelerated failure time models) are used to assess how survival rates are influenced by disease. However, they assume that each individual is equally susceptible and will eventually experience the event of interest; this assumption is not typically satisfied with regard to pathogens of wildlife populations. In contrast, mixture cure models, which comprise logistic regression and survival analysis components, allow for different covariates to be entered into each part of the model and provide better predictions of survival when a fraction of the population is expected to survive a disease outbreak. We fitted mixture cure models to the host–pathogen dynamics of Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and Coho Salmon O. kisutch and the myxozoan parasite Ceratomyxa shasta . Total parasite concentration, water temperature, and discharge were used as covariates to predict the observed parasite-induced mortality in juvenile salmonids collected as part of a long-term monitoring program in the Klamath River, California. The mixture cure models predicted the observed total mortality well, but some of the variability in observed mortality rates was not captured by the models. Parasite concentration and water temperature were positively associated with total mortality and the mortality rate of both Chinook Salmon and Coho Salmon. Discharge was positively associated with total mortality for both species but only affected the mortality rate for Coho Salmon. The mixture cure models provide insights into how daily survival rates change over time in Chinook Salmon and Coho Salmon after they become infected with C. shasta .

Oregon, California