Aaron Turecek | USGS Science

USGS2016

Avian predation on juvenile Salmonids: Spatial and temporal analysis based on acoustic and passive integrated transponder tags

We evaluated the impact of predation on juvenile steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss and yearling and subyearling Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha by piscivorous waterbirds from 11 different breeding colonies in the Columbia River basin during 2012 and 2014. Fish were tagged with both acoustic tags and PIT tags and were tracked via a network of hydrophone arrays to estimate total smolt mortality (1 – survival) at various spatial and temporal scales during out‐migration. Recoveries of PIT tags on bird colonies, coupled with the last known detections of live fish passing hydrophone arrays, were used to estimate the impact of avian predation relative to total smolt mortality. Results indicated that avian predation was a substantial source of steelhead mortality, with predation probability (proportion of available fish consumed by birds) ranging from 0.06 to 0.28 for fish traveling through the lower Snake River and the lower and middle Columbia River. Predation probability estimates ranged from 0.03 to 0.09 for available tagged yearling Chinook Salmon and from 0.01 to 0.05 for subyearlings. Smolt predation by gulls Larus spp. was concentrated near hydroelectric dams, while predation by Caspian terns Hydroprogne caspia was concentrated within reservoirs. No concentrated areas of predation were identified for double‐crested cormorants Phalacrocorax auritus or American white pelicans Pelecanus erythrorhynchos . Comparisons of total smolt mortality relative to mortality from colonial waterbirds indicated that avian predation was one of the greatest sources of mortality for steelhead and yearling Chinook Salmon during out‐migration. In contrast, avian predation on subyearling Chinook Salmon was generally low and constituted a minor component of total mortality. Our results demonstrate that acoustic and PIT tag technologies can be combined to quantify where and when smolt mortality occurs and the fraction of mortality that is due to colonial waterbird predation relative to non‐avian mortality sources.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2015

Using a Bayesian network to predict barrier island geomorphologic characteristics

Quantifying geomorphic variability of coastal environments is important for understanding and describing the vulnerability of coastal topography, infrastructure, and ecosystems to future storms and sea level rise. Here we use a Bayesian network (BN) to test the importance of multiple interactions between barrier island geomorphic variables. This approach models complex interactions and handles uncertainty, which is intrinsic to future sea level rise, storminess, or anthropogenic processes (e.g., beach nourishment and other forms of coastal management). The BN was developed and tested at Assateague Island, Maryland/Virginia, USA, a barrier island with sufficient geomorphic and temporal variability to evaluate our approach. We tested the ability to predict dune height, beach width, and beach height variables using inputs that included longer-term, larger-scale, or external variables (historical shoreline change rates, distances to inlets, barrier width, mean barrier elevation, and anthropogenic modification). Data sets from three different years spanning nearly a decade sampled substantial temporal variability and serve as a proxy for analysis of future conditions. We show that distinct geomorphic conditions are associated with different long-term shoreline change rates and that the most skillful predictions of dune height, beach width, and beach height depend on including multiple input variables simultaneously. The predictive relationships are robust to variations in the amount of input data and to variations in model complexity. The resulting model can be used to evaluate scenarios related to coastal management plans and/or future scenarios where shoreline change rates may differ from those observed historically.

Maryland and Virginia↗