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Geology topics

A.J. Michael

Publications and source records attributed to A.J. Michael.

25 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS1997

Testing prediction methods: Earthquake clustering versus the Poisson model

Testing earthquake prediction methods requires statistical techniques that compare observed success to random chance. One technique is to produce simulated earthquake catalogs and measure the relative success of predicting real and simulated earthquakes. The accuracy of these tests depends on the validity of the statistical model used to simulate the earthquakes. This study tests the effect of clustering in the statistical earthquake model on the results. Three simulation models were used to produce significance levels for a VLF earthquake prediction method. As the degree of simulated clustering increases, the statistical significance drops. Hence, the use of a seismicity model with insufficient clustering can lead to overly optimistic results. A successful method must pass the statistical tests with a model that fully replicates the observed clustering. However, a method can be rejected based on tests with a model that contains insufficient clustering.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS1991

Relations among fault behavior, subsurface geology, and three-dimensional velocity models

The development of three-dimensional P-wave velocity models for the regions surrounding five large earthquakes in California has lead to the recognition of relations among fault behavior and the material properties of the rocks that contact the fault at seismogenic depths; regions of high moment release appear to correlate with high seismic velocities whereas rupture initiation or termination may be associated with lower seismic velocities. These relations point toward a physical understanding of why faults are divided into segments that can fail independently, an understanding that could improve our ability to predict earthquakes and strong ground motion.

California↗
USGS1988

The 1987 Whittier Narrows earthquake in the Los Angeles metropolitan area, California

The Whittier Narrows earthquake sequence (local magnitude, M L = 5.9), which caused over 358-million dollars damage, indicates that assessments of earthquake hazards in the Los Angeles metropolitan area may be underestimated. The sequence ruptured a previously unidentified thrust fault that may be part of a large system of thrust faults that extends across the entire east-west length of the northern margin of the Los Angeles basin. Peak horizontal accelerations from the main shock, which were measured at ground level and in structures, were as high as 0.6 g (where g is the acceleration of gravity at sea level) within 50 kilometers of the epicenter. The distribution of the modified Mercalli intensity VII reflects a broad north-south elongated zone of damage that is approximately centered on the main shock epicenter.

California↗
USGS1988

Effects of three-dimensional velocity structure on the seismicity of the 1984 Morgan Hill, California, aftershock sequence

A three-dimensional velocity model for the area surrounding the 24 April 1984 Morgan Hill earthquake has been developed by simultaneously inverting local earthquake and refraction arrival-time data. This velocity model corresponds well to the surface geology of the region, predominantly showing a low-velocity region associated with the sedimentary sequence to the southwest of the Madrone Springs fault. This low-velocity sequence extends to a depth of approximately 5 km. Previously constructed geologic cross-sections for this region had suggested that these sediments extended to a depth of less than 2 km. Relocation of 2,179 hypocenters with the three-dimensional velocity model did not show great differences when compared to locations done with a one-dimensional velocity model with station corrections. In both cases, the Calaveras fault is steep but has a noticeable dip to the northeast and the seismicity does not intersect the surface along the trace of the Calaveras fault in the southern half of the rupture zone. The greatest differences between the two sets of locations was that the locations using the three-dimensional velocity model were deeper, and fewer earthquakes were located within the low-velocity region. The focal mechanisms were also determined for 946 earthquakes using both the one-dimensional and three-dimensional earth models. Both earth models yield similar focal mechanisms for these earthquakes.

California↗